On Thursday Cardiff City will make a third consecutive attempt at Championship play-off promotion. This time they will be the underdog, the overwhelming underdog. In 2010 they were favorites to beat Charlie Adam inspired Blackpool in the Wembley final. Last year they were expected to handle Reading, Forest or Swansea. We all remember to well what happened.
This time it is West Ham who have the favorites tag and rightly so. The Hammers finished 11 points and 20 goals better than the Bluebirds. They are everyone’s best bet to go up now, as they were at the start of the season when a Kenny Miller lone goal for Cardiff burst the Allardyce bubble on opening day in the East End of London. How ironic if it were Cardiff who ended the Hammers season in what would be the final game of the season next Monday at Upton Park.
Big Sam Allardyce will lock horns with big Malkay Mackay in a coaching battle of wits. Somehow I don’t see any surprises from Cardiff. Malkay will play his usual line-up in it’s usual formation. There will be nothing new for Sam to concern himself with. A resolute rather than expressive Welsh team will play on hard work and organization behind hopeful sparks of flair from Peter Whittingham and Joe Mason. A solid midfield of Don Cowie and Aaron Gunnarsson will have their work cut out with a more athletic and dynamic West Ham central midfield. Kevin Nolan is arguably the best central midfield player in the division.
The Hammers Carlton Cole will give both Mark Hudson and Ben Turner a physical battle and Vaz Te will provide a pacy alternative. My biggest concern for Cardiff, as it has been for most of the second half of the season, is at forward. Kenny Miller continues to receive the plaudits from players and managers alike. Palace’s Dougie Freedman was singing his praises following the weekend win that secured the play-off place. However, Miller is not scoring goals and still looks less than confident when he does get a chance.
Malkay Mackay is pulling on the experience of the Carling Cup semi’s against Palace as an indication of his teams resilience and the importance of being calm and prepared for the two-legged endeavor. He’s right to do that. But the Hammers are not Crystal Palace. This time it is more likely to be Cardiff on the back foot and the Hammers needing the patience. The Carling Cup Final against Liverpool is more likely to be the style of the games, especially the second leg in London. In Cardiff’s favor, West Ham are not Liverpool.
The first leg will be important for both teams. The Hammers will not want to lose this one and should play a less expressive style relying on the counter attack. Cardiff will want to win, but more importantly, they too will not want to lose. A level scoreline going into the return leg puts the pressure on West Ham and having dealt with it once already on gameday one, Cardiff will be confident they could do it again. The pressure on West Ham and their manager to achieve promotion is enormous and shouldn’t be underestimated. Both teams might get the result they want come Thursday’s finish. A 0-0 scoreline is on the cards. If someone gives away a goal, or a Nolan or Whittingham produces a scorcher, the tie will be thrown wide open. The wider and more open it is, the more you must fancy the favorites.
The play-offs are often described as a lottery. Maybe the dice are already loaded. Cardiff can take heart from Chelsea’s unimagineable victory over Barcelona and from their own opening day win at Upton Park. Big Sam can take heart from having the best squad of players available to him in this division. He may need most of them over two games. Cardiff with such a small squad could suffer from any first leg injuries. It’s just another reason you have go with your head and pick West Ham to win. The heart, of course, says Bloobirds, Bloobirds. Then again there’s the soccer gods, right? A Blackpool final and revenge anyone?