Omens, irony and ‘doing a Cardiff’

Nicky Maynard returns?

As Cardiff fans still celebrate their Championship title success and promotion to the Premier League they can breath a massive sigh of relief knowing the dreaded last game of the season at Hull City is no more than a duty. A game that has haunted the fixture list for months will be no more than an end note, a full stop or an exclamation point to the storyline of a wonderful promotion season.

At least that’s true for the Bluebirds. Spare a thought for the rest. For the Tigers, the looming spectre of failure, of ‘doing a Cardiff’, is all to real. No goals and only one point from the last three games has given Watford hope that they can overtake the floundering Humberside team. By beating Hull’s bitter Yorkshire rivals Leeds United on the final day of the season Watford will ensure Hull must defeat the Champions if they are to retain second spot. Steve Bruce’s men have for so long, appeared to be set for the second automatic promotion spot but now, not so much.

Even defeat at home to Watford earlier this month never seemed to matter. Ginanfranco Zola’s loan-built outfit struggled themselves after that high point, losing to Peterborough and Millwall in succession before righting the ship against Blackburn Rovers by winning 4-0. Hull had recovered beating Middlesborough and Ipswich on the road and despite losing at Wolves were six points clear of Watford with just three games to go.

But April 13th proved to be the unlucky for Hull turning point. A scoreless home draw with bottom placed Bristol City followed the Wolves loss and then came the Barnsley upset, losing 2-0 at Oakwell against another Yorkshire rival. Watford’s humbling of Blackburn was followed by a hard-fought three points at Leicester and suddenly there was a glimmer of automatic promotion hope.

Neal Ardley

Watford must beat Leeds on Saturday and hope the Championship crowned Bluebirds can silence the roar of the KC faithful by avoiding defeat. Who would say this couldn’t happen. In fact you would probably bet on it is going to happen. Long time rivals, Hull and Leicester, the Tigers and the Foxes, seem likely to be ‘doing a Cardiff’ of their own and will likely be skulking into their dens to lick the wounds come Saturday night.

The great escape in League Two last week was managed by former Cardiff City youth academy director Neil Ardley who rescued AFC Wimbledon from a swift return to the Conference backwaters. There are omens all around, many resplendent in their irony. It’s that time of year.What about the League One penalty miss of the season where in the last-minute Brentford conspired against themselves to hit the crossbar and see the

Happy Brian Flynn

ball cleared and immediately dispatched upfield into their own goal, robbing them of automatic promotion and handing the title and the automatic prize to the former Cardiff City favorite, Brian Flynn now manager at Doncaster Rovers.

Is that League One I see

Ironically Donnie look likely to replace Wolves in the Championship as their former manager and Swansea Jack Dean Saunders prepares for a second relegation in succession having gone down with Doncaster in 2012. Saunders former assistant and Wales teammate Brian Flynn will certainly be having the last laugh as he prepares for life in the Championship. Iwonder what Saunders thinks about his January decision to jump ship from Yorkshire for the sinking Black Country vessel that is Wolverhampton Wanderers right now? I wonder what the Wolves fans think?

In the Championship finale, Cardiff boss Malky Mackay can hand automatic promotion to his former club Watford, if the stars align themselves correctly. It could be one Hull of a finish. I fully expect the Tigers to be leading into the final minutes of the season and Watford to be drawing. Then take the unlucky Nicky Maynard to net the leveler for Cardiff and a Leeds own goal to send Watford up and Hull to the play-offs.  It just has to happen, doesn’t it?

City line-up for Bolton a sign of things to come?

Championship trophy

With two games to go and the Championship title already won there is little for Cardiff City to do but play out those remaining games while continuing the ongoing promotion celebrations.

Perhaps the title was delivered easier than most expected of a Cardiff team given recent history. Yet there was never a point in 2013 where any of their challengers got close enough to precipitate a nervous, anxiety ridden slump in the Bluebirds. A small wobble here and there but all in all a consistent theme of holding on to what you got as others floundered around you.

Whether the Bluebirds can raise themselves on Saturday after the week long celebration is a question. They face a Bolton team determined to win their own promotion charge and pip one of Palace, Brighton or Leicester for a place in the top six. It takes a strong will and plenty of character to pick it up again when you have achieved what you set out to do, especially when you don’t have to. Of course Mackay’s men will want to win for the fans and themselves, especially as the Championship league trophy will be presented at the end of the game. It will be a small embarrassment if the Wanderers can upset the party but an embarrassment never the less. Maybe we’re looking at another draw?

With the return of Leon Barnett to Norwich and skipper Mark Hudson still out there will probably be a return for youngster Ben Nugent partnering Ben Turner at the heart of the City defense. I expect Malky Mackay to also give another promising youngster, Joe Mason a starting place. The way to win this game will mean playing hungry performers like these two youngsters and other fringe players in the way that Gestede has performed recently. I would expect Mason over Gestede this weekend. All of that could be thrown if Frazier Campbell is deemed fit but why even bother to take the chance? Talk of Nicky Maynard playing against Hull City on the final day may mean a place for the former Hammer on the bench against Bolton, even as an unused substitute. Surely, Saturday would also be an opportunity for Etien Velikonja to find a place on the bench? Helguson (if fit) and Smith (if fit) will also be hoping to start the game on Saturday and these experienced campaigners deserve full applause for their professionalism both off the field and on the training ground as well as whatever they added on the pitch.

Two major players of this season will also be expecting to see the field for different reasons. Craig Bellamy will surely want to play a part in the game if not the starting line-up. The fans will expect him to start and lead the way. The same goes for Peter Whittingham the forgotten man of late. If ever there was a time for Whitts to come back in fresh, free and ready to excel, surely Saturday is the day. As solid as Gunnarsson and Mutch have been and Kim Bo-Kyung has excited at Burnley, Whittingham deserves his place at this historical moment in time. Despite the sentimental reasons, he should be rested and pumped.

Stalwart Kevin McNaughton has come in at an opportune time replacing the injured Matt Connolly and should retain his place unless Connolly is 100% fit. If he is then Connolly too deserves his moment in this game with SuperKev taking the bench. Craig Conway will expect to maintain his starting spot after his fine strike at Burnley and I’m sure Malky Mackay will also want to get his ultra-professional and first Cardiff signing, Don Cowie onto the field at some point if only from the bench,

Only Marshall, Turner and Taylor can be sure of their places for this game. The midfield could be anything for any number of reasons and so too the forwards. How Mackay sees the game and the Bolton attitude toward it will probably decide his formation, followed by the required players to fulfill it.

It’s likely Bolton will go for the win. It seems consistent to expect Cardiff to play their usual early attacking mindset at home, followed by a less adventurous middle period and a final 20 mins dependant on the scoreline. The game starts one way, changes, then changes again as both Mackay and the equally modern thinking Dougie Freedman exchange tactical thrusts. Freedman has proven a successful hire for the Trotters and if he should pip his old club Crystal Palace to a promotion spot he will have been proven ably profound in his decision to switch the London lights for dour, dark, Lancashire. If he outdoes Leicester it will be an immense case of ‘doing a Cardiff’ for the Foxes and perhaps the Bluebirds can steadily let go of that unhappy moniker.

All of the conjecture leads to a difficult selection problem for a game Mackay will want to win. It is also an opportunity to give younger players a further blooding and players who are probably going to leave the CCS in the closed season a final thank-you. I would expect both Helguson and Smith to move on and for Don Cowie the road is probably at its end as far as playing for Cardiff City goes. When Mackay talks about the brutality of moving ahead he sends a message that doesn’t bode well for Kevin McNaughton either. The out-of-contract Scottish defender is sure to be released, his Premier League chance having come too late. It surely is a tough game and profession.

You would have to be Gypsy Lee with a crystal ball to predict the starting line-up for the Bolton game and I’m not her. So I wont predict but here is the team I would play.

MARSHALL; McNAUGHTON, TURNER, NUGENT, TAYLOR; WHITTINGHAM, GUNNARSSON, KIM, CONWAY; BELLAMY, MASON; Subs: Lewis, Lappin, Cowie, Mutch, Noone, Gestede, Maynard;

What say you?

Point proven, title beckons

Dai Thomas – one member of the not so good old days teams

Finally it’s over. 51 years of mainly poor and mediocre football at Ninian Park splattered with a few seasons of highs and promotions from lower leagues. A First Division play-off win against Queens Park Rangers a decade ago was the genesis of todays promotion party. Strangely enough the Bluebirds will replace the R’s in the Premier League this coming season. Yes, two losing cup finals were days to be proud of. A play-off loss to Blackpool the toughest loss of all. But when you count losses amongst your good times you know the cupboard has been bare.

I’m not knocking Lenny Lawrence’s team, Eddie May’s wizards, Jimmy Andrews’s ball players or Len Ashurst’s classy contenders. Jimmy Scoular brought European nights of glory beating no less than Real Madrid at the old lady, Ninian Park. If you’re ancient enough, like me, you might even have watched the City in the old First Division (the current Premier League). There were great days when we defeated the double winning give-and-go Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 and I remember my first away trip which was to a now demolished Highbury Stadium to watch Derek Tapscott return with the Bluebirds to face his old Gunners team. We drew 1-1. How high would we would jump for joy if we achieved those two results next season. Even that was soured with relegation.

My 50+ years have been filled with many happy memories but so many more awful ones, so many relegations and poor performances. I remember the day my father gave in. During an old Second Division game he watched a player who shall remain nameless, a Welsh international striker, a young lad, balloon one too many shots over the old Canton Stand and guffawed, “If that’s what we have and that is a Welsh international then I’ve had enough’. He never bought another season ticket, he stopped selling the old BIF and BAF fundraiser tickets and spent his time watching footie on the telly from his armchair. He was one of the missing thousands who never returned. He watched a promotion game every once in a while but the love affair was over. He’d truly been cheated the day John Toshack had been sold to Liverpool and with it Cardiff’s promotion back to the top flight.

But enough of the reminiscence. It’s all about the future now. Cardiff have Championship title to claim, some real silverware to grace the boardroom. It’s cost our combined current and previous owners something like 80 million pounds to purchase this promotion. Sure, there’s much more than that to collect from the season ahead but still a precarious financial minefield to diffuse. Let’s hope our glorious leadership from Vincent Tan to Malky Mackay can negotiate it. It wasn’t so long ago that Portsmouth were winning the FA Cup.

 

Dai Thomas – one member of the not so good old days teams

But for now let’s enjoy the moment and prepare for the title that beckons, the promotion point has been proven.

 

 

Still a point to prove as Forest see red

Leon Barnett – immense

Cardiff City appear to have averted any sense of a disaster ahead as they put on-form Nottingham Forest to the axe last Saturday. Goals from Heidar Helgusson and two from Rudy Gestede chopped the former European Champions down to size and left them looking anxiously up at at another form team, Bolton Wanderers, who jumped into 6th place occupying the final play-off berth with just four games to go.

But enough of the play-offs. The Bluebirds stand one point away from the automatic promotion most of South Wales and a small portion of Malaysia has been hoping for. It would be the dream of all dreams to take hold on the prize in front of the home faithful on Tuesday night. You really believe the Cardiff fans deserve no less. It will also be supremely satisfying to avenge the 5-4 loss at Charlton back in November when the Bluebirds were at their lowest ebb and questions were being asked about their promotion credentials.

Against Forest the Bluebirds began well and deserved their lead scored by Helguson midway through the first half. The game had turned dramatically on the perhaps harsh red card awarded to Forest’s Darius Henderson and from that point on there was only ever going to be one outcome. It was an easy 3-0 and could have been more. It was delightful to see substitute Gestede leaping like the proverbial salmon and twice heading home second half goals. He looked a true threat. He certainly has a lot of promise and Mackay seems to be bringing him along effectively.

The best business of recent times, perhaps the year, may turn out to be the aquisition of Leon Barnett for injured skipper Mark Hudson. The Norwich loanee has been immense and Hudson has hardly been missed at all. The back four whatever it’s make-up, has been extremely solid. Kevin McNaughton is deputising abely for Matt Connolly and the foundation of Mackay’s successful team has been unaffected by what at the time of Hudson’s injury, looked a huge loss. Without Barnett or someone like him slotting into the backline this could have been a far more anxious ending to the season.

Whatever you might say about Malky Mackay’s selections he has used his squad extremely well and always had an answer for the injuries and loss of form that comes along during a long, hard season. The quality of the overall squad has been the success of the team.

Surely now, the Premier League dream is to come true? Dare we hope to win in style on Tuesday and party on through the night. I suppose it will hardly matter as long as we get the point needed but let’s expect the best. As a Cardiff City fan for 50+ years it’s hard to imagine the best, the worst always seems to spring to mind. A loss on Tuesday and there are just three games to go, one at Burnley, Bolton home and Hull away. Imagine that!

Disaster looms and a Hull of a finish awaits

KC Stadium – Hull
Theater of screams or graveyard of dreams?

Everyone seems to think the Champions-elect, Cardiff City (Barnsley manager David Flitcroft’s words not mine) are edging closer to promotion. Even the usually negative, crisis stirring journalists are quiet. A loss at Peterborough and two stalemates against Watford and Barnsley has been a disappointing return from these three games. Only one win in four games now and that against a struggling Blackburn Rovers who are dropping like a stone into the depths of a relegation maelstrom.

Why then is there so much apparent confidence around the media prophets and the rest of the Championship managers? You expect Malky Mackay and the players to sound confident but is this all misplaced? The Bluebirds are 15th in the current form table that manager Mackay puts so much faith in. Nottingham Forest and Bolton Wanderers who are at the CCS for two of our final three home games are sitting first and second in the form table. Hull and Charlton are also above us and Burnley are level on points with the Bluebirds over the last eight games,in 16th place.

Nobody wants to go to Hull City on the last day of the season needing a win or even a point to secure the Championship title or even more scary, to win promotion. That means we need seven points from five games. Two wins and a tie. Three wins and a tie for 10 points will secure the title. Of course for every point that either Watford or Hull drop the total points target for Cardiff reduces.

A quick look at the Hull City schedule shows this:

A. Ipswich  A. Wolves  H. Bristol City  A. Barnsley  H. Cardiff

Excluding the Cardiff game only the Ipswich game looks daunting. The Tractorboys have lost only one of the last eight games and are looking to finish out the season on a high under Mick McCarthy who will demand no less. But the meat in the sandwich between the Ipswich and Cardiff games are all very winnable. Wolves have huge injury problems and while they will surely battle under Dean Saunders command, do they have the necessary talent fit and available to pull of a win? Perhaps not.

The cross channel Robins are far from bobbing along and look like finishing the season in a downward spiral. They look doomed to relegation. Barnsley we have seen recently at first hand and while they have managed good results against Palace and Cardiff on the road recently, they will have to open up against Hull on their own patch. The Tykes will need all three points in a dogfight to stay up.

It is not a stretch to believe Hull will take at least nine or ten points from four games before entertaining the Champions-elect. Of course by then it could very well be Hull City who are Champions-elect. Under this scenario Hull would have 83 points. Should they draw one of those four games instead of winning they would have 81 points. Should they draw at Ipswich and still draw one of the other three, they would have 82 points. If they won three and tied one it would total 84 points.

As for Watford it is a similar story:

A. Peterboro  A. Millwall  H. Blackburn  A. Leicester  H. Leeds

They have what looks like a very tough game at Leicester. Even though the Midlands side are 23rd in the form table with no wins in eight games and on a desperately bad run, you have to believe they will be fighting for their pride and purpose and any win before this fixture comes around could have reignited their play-off hopes. It would be acceptable to say this Leicester game for Watford should be a given three points but I don’t think it will be. It is also possible that the Hornets next game at Peterborough will prove just as tough. The Posh are fifth in the form table and unbeaten in eight. Even so, somehow I can’t see both games being losing efforts for Watford who are such a good road team. Three points from one win or two points from two draws might be the outcome. One of their other three games is at Millwall who will probably be out of the FA Cup by then and feeling the disappointment that goes with such a semi-final loss. I give Watford these three points. At their Vicarage Road home Blackburn and Leeds seem to offer Watford another six points for sure. A total of nine then from these three games (Millwall -Blackburn-Leeds) and two or three points from the previous two games (Peterboro-Leicester). That totals 82 or 83 points. I wouldn’t rule out Watford winning all five for 15 points and 86 in total but let’s hope not, at least not for this calculation.

If we err on the side of the Bluebirds it looks like both Hull and Watford should amass 82/83 points by the time we play the Tigers. That would leave Cardiff needing 86 points for the title and 84 points for promotion, assuming we would lose to Hull City in the last game of the season. Two wins should be achievable for a team that has sat for so long at the top of the Championship heap. If Hull get 10 points for 84 total points we will need 87 points. Monotonous consistency and winning ugly is about to be put to the final test.

Can you see Cardiff losing at home to Forest and Bolton? You want to say no but both are the form teams of the division. It’s certainly very possible. A trip to Burnley is never easy and wont be despite the friendship between Sean Dyche and Malky Mackay. The City manager offered Dyche the assistant manager’s position at Cardiff when he moved down the M4 from Hertfordshire to South Wales. Dyche chose to go his own way and stepped into management following in Mackay’s footsteps at Watford before re-emerging at Burnley. Another game we could easily come home empty-handed from.

That leaves Charlton at home as the most crucial game of all. This should be the proverbial home banker. Three points is a must from this fixture against a middle of the table, nothing to play for team. Can we give City these three points and ignore the five goals the Valiants smashed past us at death Valley way back in November. That away fixture proved to be a turning point in the season for Mackay’s men and marked the only time this year the Bluebirds have lost two games in a row. The other game was at Bolton, losing by 2-1 in Dougie Freedman’s first game for the Trotters. Let’s hope this reverse fixture doesn’t prove to be another turning point, only this time in the opposite direction. Charlton are fourth in the away league table, no pushover on the road. They have lost only six times, one loss less than the Bluebirds. Three points against Charlton is not a given, it looks like a draw all over.

A draw against Forest and Charlton would not be beyond belief and maybe all we can expect from Burnley is a draw. That would be three points from three games with Bolton to play at home before the Hull City trip. Imagine the nerves around the Cardiff City Stadium and on the field if we need to win against Bolton to avoid a last day nightmare scenario? The truth is we cannot afford to draw games anymore. We have to go for wins. Two wins and a draw from the four games before we play Hull should do it. For Hull to top us they will need to have taken all 12 points from their four games. 10 points would not be enough because even if they win on the last day against the Bluebirds and level the points tally at 87 we should have maintained a better goal differential. Needing two or three wins what chance now that Mackay will take the restraints off and go for it?

Not much I’m sure, in fact I’m 100% sure he wont unless forced to. Mackay will follow his scientific approach and unless we go behind late in games there will be no gambling only a monotonous, consistent, ugly, possession oriented, field position, dead ball hoping, grind. And if we are promoted, no one will care. If we play safe, draw too many and lose out on the title, God forbid we lose the promotion prize itself, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth.